The Economic Impact of Asylum Applicants on U.S. Citizen Workers
Key Findings
New research finds that in communities where asylum applicants settle, existing U.S. workers see higher wages and lower unemployment. Economists and policy experts at Harvard Business School, Cornell Law School, and George Mason University studied hundreds of local areas across the U.S. from 2021 to 2023 — comparing outcomes in places that received more asylum applicants versus fewer. In areas that received larger numbers of asylum applicants, researchers found:
Source: Clemens, Nice & Rigol (2026). Instrumental variable estimates based on ACS, BLS LAUS, BEA, QCEW, and TRAC data, 2021–2023 study period. Local areas = U.S. commuting zones. Incumbent workers = all U.S. citizens plus non-citizens who arrived before 2021. All estimates significant at the 1% level.
National Impact
The national inflow of asylum applicants between 2021 and 2023 is associated with substantial national economic gains. Asylum applicant contributions resulted in hundreds of thousands of additional jobs for U.S. citizen workers and for immigrants who arrived prior to 2021.
Source: Clemens, Nice & Rigol (2026). Instrumental variable estimates based on ACS, BLS LAUS, BEA, QCEW, and TRAC data, 2021–2023 study period. Figures estimated at the 1% level.
GDP Contribution Per Person — What Three Independent Sources Find
Three studies, using entirely different methods and data, all estimate the impact on GDP per asylum applicant per year. All three research methods find positive estimates in the $100,000–$300,000 range.
Areas receiving larger asylum inflows experienced higher employment rates for native-born workers, U.S. citizens, and the broader incumbent workforce, higher wages across all groups, and lower unemployment.
Complementarity, Not Competition
A common concern is that new workers take jobs from existing ones. The data from hundreds of American cities and towns tells a different story: when more asylum applicants arrive, employment rises across all groups of American workers simultaneously.
Source: Clemens, Nice & Rigol (2026). Instrumental variable estimates based on ACS, BLS LAUS, BEA, QCEW, and TRAC data, 2021–2023 study period. All estimates significant at the 1% level.
Public Programs
Contrary to concerns about strain on public resources, communities with larger asylum applicant inflows see Medicaid enrollment and welfare receipt decline among native-born workers, U.S. citizens, and long-term residents alike. Better labor market conditions appear to lift existing residents off public assistance.
| Worker group | Medicaid enrollment | Welfare receipt |
|---|---|---|
| Native-born workers | −2.0% | −0.5% |
| U.S. citizens | −1.9% | −0.8% |
| Incumbent workers | −1.8% | −0.8% |
Source: Clemens, Nice & Rigol (2026). Instrumental variable estimates based on ACS, BLS LAUS, BEA, QCEW, and TRAC data, 2021–2023 study period. All estimates statistically significant.
About This Research
This research was conducted by Michael A. Clemens (George Mason University), Amy Marmer Nice (Cornell University Law School), and Natalia Rigol (Harvard Business School), and was submitted as a public comment to USCIS Docket No. USCIS-2025-0370 on April 7, 2026.
To establish causality, the researchers used a shift-share (Bartik) instrumental variable design — a well-established method that exploits a simple insight: immigrants tend to settle where earlier arrivals from their home country already live. By comparing local areas based on these pre-existing settlement patterns, the study creates a natural experiment that sidesteps a key concern: that asylum applicants might gravitate toward places already thriving economically. The analysis spans 450–605 U.S. commuting zones between 2021 and 2023.
The study draws on five data sources: local-area GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis; household employment and wage data from the American Community Survey; unemployment figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS); payroll and employment records from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW); and immigration court data from TRAC at Syracuse University. Throughout, "local areas" refers to U.S. commuting zones — the cities, towns, and surrounding regions where people live and work.